Nearly every excavator OEM sold more machines. Many still lost ground.
Off-Highway Research recently published five key trends from its new report on the global excavator industry, and I attended Chris Sleight's briefing on it. It's the clearest picture of where this market is heading that I've seen this year.
I've spent nearly 20 years on both sides of the OEM–dealer relationship, including a long period at Bobcat. So I read the trends with one question in mind:
What do they mean for the networks that have to sell, support and service these machines?
Here's my take on each.
1. Excavators are becoming the core of the business
More than 570,000 excavators were sold worldwide last year, with a total retail value of US$65 billion.
Excavator demand has grown at a long-term rate of 4.6% a year, against 3.5% for construction equipment overall. Every second construction machine sold is now an excavator, compared with one in three 20 years ago.
· For many dealers, the excavator line is no longer one product among several. It is the business.
· Coverage, technician capacity, parts availability and attachment support for excavators now decide how strong the whole dealership is.
If excavators are half the market, they deserve more than half the attention in your network planning.
2. Share loss isn't volume loss. Until it is.
The headline everyone quotes is China. A decade ago, Chinese OEMs accounted for 6% of global excavator sales. By 2025, it was 30%.
Japanese OEMs went the other way, from 49% to 34%.
But here's the detail that matters most to channel leaders: almost every OEM is selling more excavators than it did ten years ago.
That's exactly the danger.
In my experience, OEMs measure their networks on year-on-year volume. Dealers hit their unit targets. The regional review looks fine. Meanwhile market share quietly drains away.
Flat or modest growth in a fast growing market is decline. It just doesn't feel like it yet.
If your dealer scorecards don't put share of market next to units sold, you might be celebrating the wrong number.
3. Volume and value aren't the same market
This is the trend I'd put in front of every channel team.
North America's excavator market is about 10% smaller than China's by volume, but about 50% more valuable in dollar terms.
Off-Highway Research points to local size preferences, laws and regulations, specification and option expectations, and historic pricing. For a network, those factors decide the economics.
· Where units are high but value is lower, there are fewer whole-goods margin pounds per sale.
· Parts, service, attachments and rental relationships have to do the heavy lifting on dealer profitability.
· Where value is higher, customers expect more spec, more options and more support, and dealers need the people and capability to deliver it.
In my experience, networks struggle when they're built and measured for the wrong kind of market. A volume target alone tells you very little about whether a dealer's business actually works.
4. Growth markets need resilient dealers, not just ambitious ones
Excavator sales in emerging economies have grown somewhere between 7 times and more than 20 times over two decades. But their peaks and troughs are far bigger than in mature markets.
Off-Highway Research says OEMs should expect that short-term volatility. I'd add that dealers feel them first and hardest.
· A dealer who stocked up for the peak carries the inventory through the trough.
· A dealer with a strong parts and service base has something to live on when whole-goods sales drop.
· A dealer who's been pushed for volume alone may not still be there for the recovery.
When you're entering or expanding in a growth market, dealer selection and dealer health matter as much as market potential.
5. Electrification: the tipping point will land on the channel
Most electrification of construction equipment so far has been wheeled loaders and wide-bodied trucks in mining and quarrying. Electric excavator demand has lagged, but that started to change in 2026.
Two pressures are behind the change. Chinese cities have begun banning diesel equipment to improve air quality, and high oil prices have renewed interest worldwide.
The barrier Off-Highway Research highlights is charging logistics and infrastructure. That lands squarely on the channel.
· Who solves charging on a city-centre site?
· Who carries the residual-value risk?
· Who trains the technicians?
· What does the rental model look like?
The OEMs who answer those questions with their dealers will be ready when demand moves.
One more number worth noting
Roughly 10% of the excavators sold worldwide last year were made in China by non-Chinese OEMs.
China's role in this industry isn't only about Chinese brands. It's about where the industry's machines are built.
What I'd be asking as a channel director
· Do our dealer scorecards track share, or just units?
· Do our dealers' economics actually work in the value mix of their market?
· Are our dealers in volatile markets financially resilient enough to ride out the trough?
· What's our dealer-level plan for electrification, beyond the product launch?
· Is excavator capability getting the share of network investment it now deserves?
Which of these is your network least ready for?
I'd be interested to hear from channel and regional leaders, so drop a comment or send me a message.
With thanks to Chris Sleight and Off-Highway Research. Their article "Five key trends in the global excavator industry" and their full Special Report on the global excavator industry are well worth a look.
The original news article is here: https://offhighwayresearch.com/news/five-key-trends-in-the-global-excavator-industry/
and the page for the report on Off highway store is here: https://offhighwayresearch.com/ohr-store/#!/Special-Report-The-Global-Hydraulic-Excavator-Industry-September-2026/p/864165389
If you're a channel director or regional manager looking at how your network reviews are structured, drop me a message or comment below.
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